app.matakite.forecast

{
  "id": "app.matakite.forecast",
  "defs": {
    "main": {
      "key": "tid",
      "type": "record",
      "record": {
        "type": "object",
        "required": [
          "subject",
          "probability",
          "createdAt"
        ],
        "properties": {
          "date": {
            "ref": "#dateForecast",
            "type": "ref",
            "description": "Point and optional quantile forecast for a date question."
          },
          "multi": {
            "ref": "#multiForecast",
            "type": "ref",
            "description": "Probability mass for a multi question. Appviews require one entry per question option id, unique ids, and a total of 100."
          },
          "numeric": {
            "ref": "#numericForecast",
            "type": "ref",
            "description": "Point and optional quantile forecast for a numeric question."
          },
          "subject": {
            "ref": "com.atproto.repo.strongRef",
            "type": "ref",
            "description": "The question being forecast (uri + cid). The cid pins the exact question version this forecast was made against."
          },
          "createdAt": {
            "type": "string",
            "format": "datetime"
          },
          "rationale": {
            "type": "string",
            "maxLength": 3000,
            "description": "Optional short reasoning. Public, attached to the forecaster's track record.",
            "maxGraphemes": 300
          },
          "probability": {
            "type": "integer",
            "maximum": 100,
            "minimum": 0,
            "description": "Percent probability of YES for binary questions. 0 and 100 are permitted but brave. Integer by design (matches Metaculus/Manifold/Kalshi UX; calibration math is fine at integer precision; nuance lives in the forecast trail over time, not in a single value). If extreme-tail precision is ever needed, add an optional logOdds field; do not change this one. The field remains required for Lexicon evolution compatibility. Writers of multi, numeric, and date forecasts MUST set it to 50; appviews MUST ignore it when a typed payload is present. See docs/lexicon-evolution.md."
          }
        }
      },
      "description": "A forecast on a binary, multi, numeric, or date question. Revisions are new records with the same subject uri; the full trail is retained and used for time-weighted scoring. Appviews select the payload matching the cid-pinned question type and reject records with conflicting typed payloads."
    },
    "dateForecast": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "point"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "point": {
          "type": "string",
          "format": "datetime",
          "description": "UTC datetime point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's date bounds."
        },
        "quantiles": {
          "type": "array",
          "items": {
            "ref": "#dateQuantile",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "maxLength": 99,
          "description": "Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing datetimes."
        }
      }
    },
    "dateQuantile": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "level",
        "value"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "level": {
          "type": "integer",
          "maximum": 99,
          "minimum": 1,
          "description": "Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90."
        },
        "value": {
          "type": "string",
          "format": "datetime",
          "description": "UTC datetime at this percentile."
        }
      }
    },
    "multiForecast": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "probabilities"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "probabilities": {
          "type": "array",
          "items": {
            "ref": "#optionProbability",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "maxLength": 50,
          "minLength": 2,
          "description": "Probability mass by stable option id. Entries sum to 100 under reference appview policy."
        }
      }
    },
    "numericForecast": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "point"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "point": {
          "type": "string",
          "description": "Decimal-string point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's numeric bounds."
        },
        "quantiles": {
          "type": "array",
          "items": {
            "ref": "#numericQuantile",
            "type": "ref"
          },
          "maxLength": 99,
          "description": "Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing values."
        }
      }
    },
    "numericQuantile": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "level",
        "value"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "level": {
          "type": "integer",
          "maximum": 99,
          "minimum": 1,
          "description": "Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90."
        },
        "value": {
          "type": "string",
          "description": "Decimal-string value at this percentile."
        }
      }
    },
    "optionProbability": {
      "type": "object",
      "required": [
        "optionId",
        "probability"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "optionId": {
          "type": "string",
          "maxLength": 640,
          "minLength": 1,
          "description": "Stable id from the subject question's multi.optionIds array.",
          "maxGraphemes": 64,
          "minGraphemes": 1
        },
        "probability": {
          "type": "integer",
          "maximum": 100,
          "minimum": 0,
          "description": "Percent probability assigned to this option."
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "$type": "com.atproto.lexicon.schema",
  "lexicon": 1
}