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app.matakite.forecast

A forecast on a binary, multi, numeric, or date question. Revisions are new records with the same subject uri; the full trail is retained and used for time-weighted scoring. Appviews select the payload matching the cid-pinned question type and reject records with conflicting typed payloads.

Repository @matakite.app did:plc:vhycfha6sjn44hxepb5bmjax namespace authority
Details · record, key tid
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Record

record · key tid

Properties

createdAt

requiredstring · datetime

date

ref

Point and optional quantile forecast for a date question.

Reference

multi

ref

Probability mass for a multi question. Appviews require one entry per question option id, unique ids, and a total of 100.

Reference

numeric

ref

Point and optional quantile forecast for a numeric question.

Reference

probability

requiredinteger

Percent probability of YES for binary questions. 0 and 100 are permitted but brave. Integer by design (matches Metaculus/Manifold/Kalshi UX; calibration math is fine at integer precision; nuance lives in the forecast trail over time, not in a single value). If extreme-tail precision is ever needed, add an optional logOdds field; do not change this one. The field remains required for Lexicon evolution compatibility. Writers of multi, numeric, and date forecasts MUST set it to 50; appviews MUST ignore it when a typed payload is present. See docs/lexicon-evolution.md.

  • minimum: 0
  • maximum: 100

rationale

string

Optional short reasoning. Public, attached to the forecaster's track record.

  • maxLength: 3000
  • maxGraphemes: 300

subject

requiredref

The question being forecast (uri + cid). The cid pins the exact question version this forecast was made against.

Reference

#dateForecast

object

Properties

point

requiredstring · datetime

UTC datetime point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's date bounds.

quantiles

array

Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing datetimes.

  • maxLength: 99
itemsref
Reference

#dateQuantile

object

Properties

level

requiredinteger

Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90.

  • minimum: 1
  • maximum: 99

value

requiredstring · datetime

UTC datetime at this percentile.

#multiForecast

object

Properties

probabilities

requiredarray

Probability mass by stable option id. Entries sum to 100 under reference appview policy.

  • minLength: 2
  • maxLength: 50
itemsref
Reference

#numericForecast

object

Properties

point

requiredstring

Decimal-string point estimate. Appviews validate it against the question's numeric bounds.

quantiles

array

Optional uncertainty distribution. Appviews require unique ascending levels and nondecreasing values.

  • maxLength: 99
itemsref
Reference

#numericQuantile

object

Properties

level

requiredinteger

Percentile level, for example 10, 50, or 90.

  • minimum: 1
  • maximum: 99

value

requiredstring

Decimal-string value at this percentile.

#optionProbability

object

Properties

optionId

requiredstring

Stable id from the subject question's multi.optionIds array.

  • minLength: 1
  • maxLength: 640
  • minGraphemes: 1
  • maxGraphemes: 64

probability

requiredinteger

Percent probability assigned to this option.

  • minimum: 0
  • maximum: 100

Similar lexicons

semantic match

Lexicons whose schemas describe something close to this one. Check them before publishing a new one that overlaps.

  • app.matakite.question

    record

    A resolvable forecasting question. Immutability contract: editing this record after forecasts exist changes its CID; forecasts reference the question by strongRef (uri+cid), so appviews detect and flag post-forecast edits.